PnL by Market (118)17 open101 closed
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
● open No · $969in $940unreal +$29
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
● open Yes · $0in $300unreal $-300
Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
● open No · $476in $480unreal $-4
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?
● open Yes · $0in $1.0Kout $747unreal $-100
● open Yes · $4in $132out $27unreal $-95
Will the 2026 State of the Union have between 35M and 37M viewers?
● open Yes · $0in $77unreal $-77
Will Chuck Schumer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
● open No · $103in $108unreal $-5
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
● open No · $90in $204out $105unreal $-12
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
● open No · $190in $137unreal +$52
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
● open Yes · $73in $75unreal $-2
● open Yes · $2in $35unreal $-33
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
● open Yes · $0in $27unreal $-27
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February?
● open Yes · $0in $25unreal $-25
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?
● open No · $75in $50unreal +$25
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February?
● open Yes · $0in $4unreal $-4
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
● open Yes · $100in $54unreal +$46
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
● open Yes · $0out $1unreal $-8
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
● closedin $24.1Kout $27.6K
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
● closedout $3.0K
● closedin $36.1Kout $38.5K
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
● closedin $14.3Kout $16.2K
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?
● closedin $4.4Kout $2.8K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
● closedin $37.1Kout $38.1K
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025?
● closedout $872
Will the 2026 State of the Union have less than 35M viewers?
● closedin $210out $921
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
● closedin $157out $860
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech on October 14?
● closedin $539out $1.1K
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?
● closedin $2.0Kout $1.6K
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?
● closedin $1.6Kout $2.1K
AOC announces senate run in 2025?
● closedout $333
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?
● closedin $307
Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?
● closedout $270
Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?
● closedin $269
Will Mike Bloomberg endorse Cuomo?
● closedin $135out $360
Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting?
● closedout $190
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
● closedout $159
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?
● closedin $220out $81
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late Powell" in January?
● closedin $140out $267
Will Powell say "Beige Book" during speech on October 14?
● closedin $50out $172
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?
● closedin $13.5Kout $13.6K
Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January?
● closedin $100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
● closedin $125out $25
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (October 13 - 19)
● closedin $44out $130
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December?
● closedin $105out $190
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
● closedin $12out $95
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late Powell" in October?
● closedin $21out $90
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?
● closedin $8.1Kout $8.1K
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?
● closedin $2.0Kout $1.9K
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?
● closedin $69out $9
Will Trump talk to Kaja Kallas in January?
● closedin $50
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?
● closedin $25out $69
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?
● closedin $500out $542
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
● closedout $39
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?
● closedin $64out $100
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?
● closedin $100out $65
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?
● closedin $41out $74
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
● closedin $1.2Kout $1.1K
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?
● closedin $20out $52
Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?
● closedin $30
Fed rate cut by December 2025 meeting?
● closedin $1.9Kout $2.0K
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?
● closedin $3.9Kout $3.9K
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
● closedin $1.1Kout $1.1K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?
● closedin $450out $472
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January?
● closedin $20
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?
● closedin $20
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
● closedin $20
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31?
● closedin $20
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September?
● closedin $19
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?
● closedin $40out $23
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
● closedin $24out $7
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
● closedin $16
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?
● closedin $15
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?
● closedin $15
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
● closedin $36out $21
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by November 30?
● closedin $687out $700
Maduro receives asylum by December 31?
● closedin $100out $114
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?
● closedin $288out $300
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
● closedin $697out $685
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?
● closedin $200out $211
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?
● closedin $20out $31
US strikes Afghanistan by October 31?
● closedin $900out $910
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?
● closedin $10
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
● closedin $1.5Kout $1.5K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
● closedin $50out $41
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
● closedin $9
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?
● closedin $178out $187
Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
● closedin $6out $15
Will Trump praise Marjorie Taylor Greene by December 31?
● closedin $40out $48
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?
● closedin $5out $13
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
● closedin $1.2Kout $1.2K
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September?
● closedin $2out $6
Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly reconcile by December 31?
● closedin $20out $24
Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with <2 dissents?
● closedin $3out $7
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting?
● closedin $1.0Kout $1.0K
Ukraine election called in 2025?
● closedin $40out $42
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?
● closedout $1
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
● closedin $14out $13
Will Trump say "Ego" in January?
● closedin $1out $2
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
● closedin $75out $75
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?
● closed
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
● closed
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?
● closed
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?
● closed
Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?
● closed
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
● closed
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?
● closed
US congress stock trading ban in 2025?
● closed
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
● closed
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?
● closed
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?
● closed
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani?
● closed
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30?
● closed
Will Trump say "Taylor Swift" during September?
● closed
Will Trump sue Powell by September 30?
● closed
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in September?
● closed
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in September?
● closed
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?
● closed
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?
● closed
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? ●open No· $969 | $940 | $0 | +$29 | 3 | $-911 |
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address? ●open Yes· $0 | $300 | $0 | $-300 | 1 | $-600 |
Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? ●open No· $476 | $480 | $0 | $-4 | 3 | $-484 |
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28? ●open Yes· $0 | $1.0K | $747 | $-100 | 6 | $-353 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? ●open Yes· $4 | $132 | $27 | $-95 | 4 | $-200 |
Will the 2026 State of the Union have between 35M and 37M viewers? ●open Yes· $0 | $77 | $0 | $-77 | 2 | $-153 |
Will Chuck Schumer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? ●open No· $103 | $108 | $0 | $-5 | 2 | $-113 |
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? ●open No· $90 | $204 | $105 | $-12 | 3 | $-110 |
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? ●open No· $190 | $137 | $0 | +$52 | 2 | $-85 |
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? ●open Yes· $73 | $75 | $0 | $-2 | 1 | $-77 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? ●open Yes· $2 | $35 | $0 | $-33 | 1 | $-68 |
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? ●open Yes· $0 | $27 | $0 | $-27 | 5 | $-54 |
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February? ●open Yes· $0 | $25 | $0 | $-25 | 1 | $-50 |
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? ●open No· $75 | $50 | $0 | +$25 | 1 | $-25 |
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February? ●open Yes· $0 | $4 | $0 | $-4 | 1 | $-8 |
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? ●open Yes· $100 | $54 | $0 | +$46 | 7 | $-8 |
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? ●open Yes· $0 | $0 | $1 | $-8 | 1 | $-7 |
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? ● closed | $24.1K | $27.6K | — | 5 | +$3.5K |
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? ● closed | $0 | $3.0K | — | 1 | +$3.0K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $36.1K | $38.5K | — | 10 | +$2.4K |
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? ● closed | $14.3K | $16.2K | — | 15 | +$1.9K |
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill? ● closed | $4.4K | $2.8K | — | 14 | $-1607 |
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? ● closed | $37.1K | $38.1K | — | 19 | +$987 |
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $872 | — | 1 | +$872 |
Will the 2026 State of the Union have less than 35M viewers? ● closed | $210 | $921 | — | 5 | +$711 |
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? ● closed | $157 | $860 | — | 10 | +$704 |
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech on October 14? ● closed | $539 | $1.1K | — | 3 | +$539 |
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? ● closed | $2.0K | $1.6K | — | 9 | $-467 |
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $1.6K | $2.1K | — | 11 | +$443 |
AOC announces senate run in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $333 | — | 0 | +$333 |
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? ● closed | $307 | $0 | — | 3 | $-307 |
Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $270 | — | 12 | +$270 |
Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31? ● closed | $269 | $0 | — | 5 | $-269 |
Will Mike Bloomberg endorse Cuomo? ● closed | $135 | $360 | — | 2 | +$225 |
Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting? ● closed | $0 | $190 | — | 23 | +$190 |
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $159 | — | 1 | +$159 |
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill? ● closed | $220 | $81 | — | 3 | $-139 |
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late Powell" in January? ● closed | $140 | $267 | — | 2 | +$127 |
Will Powell say "Beige Book" during speech on October 14? ● closed | $50 | $172 | — | 1 | +$122 |
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out? ● closed | $13.5K | $13.6K | — | 2 | +$122 |
Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January? ● closed | $100 | $0 | — | 1 | $-100 |
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? ● closed | $125 | $25 | — | 3 | $-100 |
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (October 13 - 19) ● closed | $44 | $130 | — | 2 | +$86 |
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? ● closed | $105 | $190 | — | 3 | +$85 |
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? ● closed | $12 | $95 | — | 5 | +$83 |
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late Powell" in October? ● closed | $21 | $90 | — | 5 | +$69 |
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? ● closed | $8.1K | $8.1K | — | 7 | +$65 |
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? ● closed | $2.0K | $1.9K | — | 3 | $-65 |
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? ● closed | $69 | $9 | — | 5 | $-60 |
Will Trump talk to Kaja Kallas in January? ● closed | $50 | $0 | — | 1 | $-50 |
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? ● closed | $25 | $69 | — | 2 | +$44 |
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? ● closed | $500 | $542 | — | 3 | +$42 |
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? ● closed | $0 | $39 | — | 3 | +$39 |
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference? ● closed | $64 | $100 | — | 1 | +$36 |
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision? ● closed | $100 | $65 | — | 7 | $-35 |
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference? ● closed | $41 | $74 | — | 3 | +$33 |
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? ● closed | $1.2K | $1.1K | — | 6 | $-32 |
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? ● closed | $20 | $52 | — | 4 | +$32 |
Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference? ● closed | $30 | $0 | — | 1 | $-30 |
Fed rate cut by December 2025 meeting? ● closed | $1.9K | $2.0K | — | 3 | +$27 |
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31? ● closed | $3.9K | $3.9K | — | 7 | +$25 |
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? ● closed | $1.1K | $1.1K | — | 3 | +$23 |
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? ● closed | $450 | $472 | — | 3 | +$22 |
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? ● closed | $20 | $0 | — | 1 | $-20 |
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? ● closed | $20 | $0 | — | 1 | $-20 |
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? ● closed | $20 | $0 | — | 1 | $-20 |
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? ● closed | $20 | $0 | — | 1 | $-20 |
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or less in September? ● closed | $19 | $0 | — | 1 | $-19 |
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? ● closed | $40 | $23 | — | 3 | $-17 |
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? ● closed | $24 | $7 | — | 3 | $-17 |
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? ● closed | $16 | $0 | — | 5 | $-16 |
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? ● closed | $15 | $0 | — | 2 | $-15 |
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? ● closed | $15 | $0 | — | 1 | $-15 |
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? ● closed | $36 | $21 | — | 9 | $-15 |
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by November 30? ● closed | $687 | $700 | — | 2 | +$14 |
Maduro receives asylum by December 31? ● closed | $100 | $114 | — | 1 | +$14 |
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31? ● closed | $288 | $300 | — | 1 | +$12 |
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? ● closed | $697 | $685 | — | 6 | $-12 |
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? ● closed | $200 | $211 | — | 11 | +$11 |
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision? ● closed | $20 | $31 | — | 1 | +$11 |
US strikes Afghanistan by October 31? ● closed | $900 | $910 | — | 1 | +$10 |
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? ● closed | $10 | $0 | — | 1 | $-10 |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House ● closed | $1.5K | $1.5K | — | 3 | +$10 |
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? ● closed | $50 | $41 | — | 2 | $-9 |
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? ● closed | $9 | $0 | — | 5 | $-9 |
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? ● closed | $178 | $187 | — | 3 | +$9 |
Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? ● closed | $6 | $15 | — | 1 | +$9 |
Will Trump praise Marjorie Taylor Greene by December 31? ● closed | $40 | $48 | — | 3 | +$8 |
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference? ● closed | $5 | $13 | — | 1 | +$8 |
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? ● closed | $1.2K | $1.2K | — | 4 | +$5 |
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September? ● closed | $2 | $6 | — | 2 | +$4 |
Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly reconcile by December 31? ● closed | $20 | $24 | — | 2 | +$4 |
Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with <2 dissents? ● closed | $3 | $7 | — | 2 | +$4 |
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting? ● closed | $1.0K | $1.0K | — | 2 | $-2 |
Ukraine election called in 2025? ● closed | $40 | $42 | — | 1 | +$2 |
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 0 | +$1 |
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? ● closed | $14 | $13 | — | 2 | $-1 |
Will Trump say "Ego" in January? ● closed | $1 | $2 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will the government shutdown end November 12? ● closed | $75 | $75 | — | 2 | $-0 |
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
US congress stock trading ban in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Obama endorse Mamdani? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump say "Taylor Swift" during September? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in September? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in September? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Recent Trades (1)
YES$19.6K@ 99.5¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?🐋13 days ago
Trading Activity · 90d
1 active days
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Finance
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1d–7d
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