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Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?

● quote just now
Crypto→Token LaunchCloses: about 1 yearLiquidity: $73.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $112.5KEvent: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

61.95¢
YES
38.05¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution95Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%
24h sample:10 trades$51.0K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 277 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$30.0K@ 58¢·ruyi331

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$33.1K
tracked
$51.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 277 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-01-01 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://predict.fun/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

•"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 56.5¢6h ago
15m STALLED -2.5pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.3pp · near-book depth $1.3K → $2.2K · 61s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $33.1K
24hYES · $26.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.95¢
VWAP 24h58.69¢▲ above by 3.3pp
VWAP 7d57.55¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.3K
60¢
← now
$2.0K
55¢
$58.3K
50¢
$92
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$30.0K@ 58.46¢
ruyi3310x3493…cd58
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYNO$10.2K@ 42.27¢
sdiff1230xd352…4ad6
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ruyi331Yes$30.0K
BUY VWAP 58.46¢·1 fill
sdiff123No$12.2K
BUY VWAP 41.98¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.