Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Politics→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $67.6K24h Vol: $671.3K

86.5¢

YES

13.5¢

99.4¢

Spread

conv0Conviction — % of recent trades going one direction (30 min window)whale0Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24hedge0Edge Score — (Conviction + Whale) / 2, overall signal strengthmom0Momentum — trade frequency vs baseline (30 min window)

Price History

Orderbook YES/NO

Loading orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Position ConcentrationWallets with ≥15% share of 7-day volume. >40% = single player dominates = manipulation risk or thin liquidity. Multiple large holders may indicate coordinated activity.

Top Holders · 30d

Loading…

Accumulation

Loading…

Live Tapeupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Whale Trades$10,000+Δ now

No whale activity

Related Markets · Politics

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0.8¢$48.0M1

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?