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NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 monthLiquidity: $32.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $54.1KEvent: NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
2.3¢
YES
97.7¢
NO
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$2.9K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 279 min agoofficial metadata 15111 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$2.9K@ 98¢·davisb12

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$2.9K
tracked
$2.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $2.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 279 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 15111 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Stephen Curry is not rostered by the Golden State Warriors before October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•If Stephen Curry retires, is released, is traded, or is otherwise not a member of the Golden State Warriors official player roster, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Stephen Curry is not rostered by the Golden State Warriors before October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Stephen Curry retires, is released, is traded, or is otherwise not a member of the Golden State Warriors official player roster, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Stephen Curry is listed on the official roster of the Golden State Warriors as of October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of his playing status, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA, Golden State Warriors, and/or Stephen Curry; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $2.9K
24hNO · $2.9K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.3¢
VWAP 24h2.2¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d2.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.2K@ 95.3¢
davisb120xdf17…97d1
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.