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Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

● quote just now
Science→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $178.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $60.7KEvent: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2.5¢
YES
97.5¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$35 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 520 min agoofficial metadata 456 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $728 net·2 wallets·$789 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$17.0K@ 97¢·AllByMyseIf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$35

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $728 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 520 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 456 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 20d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 96.0¢36d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.4pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 96.0¢42d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.3pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 96.0¢43d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 96.2¢44d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $35

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.5¢
VWAP 24h2.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d2.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$198.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$17.0K@ 97.0¢
AllByMyseIf0x5188…c804
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$17.0K@ 97.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$11.0K@ 96.5¢
DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$18.2K@ 95.9¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$35.8K@ 96.2¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$15.5K@ 96.3¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.4K@ 96.0¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$18.8K@ 96.0¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$31.6K@ 96.2¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$39.1K@ 96.3¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$22.7K@ 96.4¢0xd06f…d4a6🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$85.2K@ 96.2¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$104.5K@ 96.5¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$28.2K@ 96.5¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$10.6K@ 96.7¢
zthunderfury0xc682…17bb
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$63.4K@ 96.7¢
anoin1230x9648…6825
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$11.1K@ 96.5¢
AllByMyseIf0x5188…c804
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.