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Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $8.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.5KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
40.5¢
YES
59.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:5 trades$12.5K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 80 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$2.5K@ 56¢·quavoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $12.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.5K
6h
−$12.5K
tracked
$12.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 5 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 80 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-29 17:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Tampa Bay Rays or New York Yankees.

•This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, scheduled for May 23 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Tampa Bay Rays or New York Yankees. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo4 linked markets · $325.4K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $63.4K gross
berbisminsk2 linked markets · $14.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $12.5K
6hNO · $12.5K
24hNO · $12.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h44.0¢▼ below by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d44.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$12.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooNo$12.5K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.