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Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

● quote 54s ago
UncategorizedCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $10.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $70.2KEvent: Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
26.0¢
YES
74.0¢
NO
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution45Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$11.9K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $7.0K net·2 wallets·$7.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$5.9K@ 84¢·fkcvffcjt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$13
6h
−$13
tracked
$11.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $7.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

•For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Read full resolution rules

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $59 → $75 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $13
6hNO · $13
24hNO · $7.9K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.0¢
VWAP 24h20.4¢▲ above by 5.6pp
VWAP 7d23.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.2K
25¢
← now
$3.9K
20¢
$1.9K
15¢
$7.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity