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U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

● quote 427 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 18 hoursLiquidity: $59.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $647.5KEvent: U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
61.1¢
YES
38.9¢
NO
1.8¢
Spread
anomaly81Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:211 trades$21.2K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 455 min agoofficial metadata 430 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $485·2 wallets·$588 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$3.7K@ 82¢·0xb436…bb3c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$502
6h
−$3.1K
tracked
$21.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$485 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.8¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 427 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 455 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 430 minutes old.
  • •Less than 18h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
disputed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 11:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $49 → $46 · 26s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$502
6h−$3.1K
24h+$1.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.1¢
VWAP 24h79.0¢▼ below by 17.9pp
VWAP 7d79.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.2K
90¢
$4.3K
85¢
$913
80¢
$5.3K
75¢
$2.0K
70¢
$361
65¢
$4.0K
60¢
← now
$2.9K
55¢
$257
50¢
$10
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity