Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

● quote 86 min ago

Sports→SoccerCloses: 7 monthsLiquidity: $368.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.7KEvent: LALIGA: 2027 Champion

Indicative prices · 86 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

58.5¢

YES

41.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly47Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection35Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:8 trades$3.1K trackedsource coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$71.6K@ 68¢·Marcoli

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

+$1.1K

−$810

tracked

$3.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $83 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 86 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
•Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-06-15 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship per the rules of LALIGA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".

•If the 2026-27 LALIGA season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship per the rules of LALIGA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 LALIGA season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from LALIGA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes

DEADLINE CHANGED · 44d ago

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

bananabreakfast2 linked markets · $181 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 52.0¢94d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $1.1K

6hNO · $810

24hNO · $906

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current58.5¢

VWAP 24h66.13¢▼ below by 7.6pp

VWAP 7d68.07¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

$34.4K

75¢

$1.3K

70¢

$12.0K