49ers vs. Chargers

● quote 70 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $379.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $152.6KEvent: 49ers vs. Chargers

47.5¢

YES

52.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:28 trades$53.1K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 88 min agoofficial metadata 72 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChargers (NO)$20.0K@ 51¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

−$7.8K

−$32.6K

tracked

$53.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 70 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 88 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 72 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-21 02:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for August 20 at 10:00PM ET: If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If Chargers wins, the market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $40.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chargers@ 52.0¢4h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$7.8K

6h−$32.6K

24h−$32.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current47.5¢

VWAP 24h48.9¢▼ below by 1.4pp

VWAP 7d49.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

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75¢

70¢

65¢

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55¢