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Will CF América win on 2026-07-24?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $14.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $361.6KEvent: Atlante FC vs. CF América
37.5¢
YES
62.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection36Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets5Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution74Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:184 trades$9.1K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $119·2 wallets·$1.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$1.5K@ 81¢·0xd3d3…bb8e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.3K
6h
−$329
tracked
$9.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$119 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 48

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-25 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 24, 2026 If CF América wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $18.6K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $914 gross
0x4732…f40d2 linked markets · $51 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CROSS MARKET1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $4 → $13 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3.3K
6h−$329
24h−$329

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.5¢
VWAP 24h71.6¢▼ below by 34.1pp
VWAP 7d71.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.7K
75¢
$1.2K
70¢
$0
65¢
$400
60¢
$3.0K
55¢
$129
50¢
$174
45¢
$14
40¢
$135
35¢
← now
$43
30¢
$170
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity