LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

● quote 12 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $360.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $125.3KEvent: LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 44%
24h sample:38 trades$2.5K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 88%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$178
6h
+$1.2K
tracked
$2.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 44% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 12 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-27 04:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Shopify Rebellion and Disguised in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 26 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against Disguised. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Shopify Rebellion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4641…26be3 linked markets · $860 gross
0xc69b…20762 linked markets · $635 gross
0x84ad…bfb72 linked markets · $519 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $723$503 · 93s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$178
6h+$1.2K
24h+$1.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h74.7¢▲ above by 25.3pp
VWAP 7d74.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$979
90¢
$63
85¢
$0
80¢
$11
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$8
60¢
$85
55¢
$907
50¢
$34
45¢
$0
40¢
$152
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$536.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$297.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
2.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
0.1¢$259.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
100.0¢$258.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?
0.1¢$244.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?
0.1¢$238.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?
0.1¢$229.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.