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Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-07-26?

● quote 8867 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $224.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $521.0KEvent: Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR
0.3¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$16.2K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$26.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$21.5K@ 54¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$15.9K
tracked
$31.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$16.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 59 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 8867 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 9004 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-26 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 26, 2026 If Cruzeiro EC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 6d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 6d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $2.2K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $313 gross
0x26d6…cacc2 linked markets · $143 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 56.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$15.9K
24h+$15.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.3¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▼ below by 50.7pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.7K
50¢
$24.6K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$103
15¢
$450
10¢
$747
5¢
$100
0¢
← now
$781

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$21.5K@ 54.4¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—6 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WTSAYes$21.5K
BUY VWAP 54.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.