Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

● quote 209 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $202.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $215.8KEvent: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
44.5¢
YES
55.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution37Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority39Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$24.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 219 min agoofficial metadata 210 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChicago Cubs (YES)$11.6K@ 45¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.3K
6h
+$1.6K
tracked
$24.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$11.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 39

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 209 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 219 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 210 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for July 25 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.3K
6h+$1.6K
24h+$23.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h45.3¢▼ below by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d45.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$219
45¢
$23.8K
40¢
← now
$5
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYChicago Cubs (YES)$10.2K@ 45.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs (YES)$11.6K@ 45.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Chicago Cubs$11.6K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
Talvez10Chicago Cubs$10.2K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.