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Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-08-01?

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $181.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $203.7KEvent: Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$45.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $35.7K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$38.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$36.9K@ 60¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.1K
6h
−$41.9K
tracked
$45.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$35.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 1, 2026 If Los Angeles Galaxy wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $4 → $14 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$6.1K
6h−$41.9K
24h−$41.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.1¢▼ below by 38.0pp
VWAP 7d38.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1
35¢
$38.3K
30¢
$6.4K
25¢
$168
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$176

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$36.9K@ 60.4¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WTSANo$36.9K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.