Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers

● quote 8 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $198.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $450.8KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
12.5¢
YES
87.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection48Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority80Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:65 trades$93.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $91.6K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$91.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas Rangers (NO)$47.3K@ 51¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$44.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$44.3K
6h
−$91.5K
tracked
$93.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$91.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 80

Since latest accumulation: +10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 10.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 18:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, scheduled for July 26 at 2:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Texas Rangers@ 78.0¢56m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 78.0¢56m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Texas Rangers2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Texas Rangers2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $3.7K$413 · 49s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$44.3K
6h$91.5K
24h$91.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current12.5¢
VWAP 24h45.6¢▼ below by 33.1pp
VWAP 7d45.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$21
45¢
$47.5K
40¢
$44.4K
35¢
$174
30¢
$33
25¢
$0
20¢
$20
15¢
$14
10¢
← now
$8
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTexas Rangers (NO)$30.1K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTexas Rangers (NO)$14.2K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTexas Rangers (NO)$47.3K@ 51.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafTexas Rangers$91.6K
BUY VWAP 54.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.