Palermo: Francesca Jones vs Miriam Bulgaru

● quote 120 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $230.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $195.7KEvent: Palermo: Francesca Jones vs Miriam Bulgaru
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartVerified directional wallets: positive measured PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$1.8K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 175 min agoofficial metadata 124 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesca Jones (YES)$1.0K@ 94¢·0x1c70…caf0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$85
6h
+$1.6K
tracked
$1.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$113 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • Executable quote is 120 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 175 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus independent-wallet confirmation.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$85
6h+$1.6K
24h+$1.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h93.9¢▲ above by 6.0pp
VWAP 7d93.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$113
90¢
$1.7K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity
Verified directional wallets · 7d
0x076d…8d4cYES+$113 signed