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Winnipeg: Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu

● quote 20 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $294.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $559.0KEvent: Winnipeg: Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly18Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 2 smartVerified directional wallets: positive measured PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:125 trades$28.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 23 min ago
Verified directional wallets · 7d:YES +$265·2 wallets·$368 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYuta Shimizu (NO)$19.9K@ 50¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$93
6h
−$18.2K
tracked
$28.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$265 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 20 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-30 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Johannus Monday and Yuta Shimizu in the Winnipeg, originally scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Johannus Monday' if Johannus Monday advances against Yuta Shimizu. This market will resolve to 'Yuta Shimizu' if Yuta Shimizu advances against Johannus Monday. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$93
6h−$18.2K
24h−$18.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h52.8¢▲ above by 47.1pp
VWAP 7d52.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23
90¢
$56
85¢
$74
80¢
$4.0K
75¢
$104
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$5
55¢
$59
50¢
$19.9K
45¢
$24
40¢
$22
35¢
$59
30¢
$3.6K
25¢
$312
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYuta Shimizu (NO)$19.9K@ 49.6¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
Verified directional wallets · 7d
swisstonyYES+$284 signed
ferrariChampions2026NO$20 signed