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Winnipeg: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan

● quote 115 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $167.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $324.1KEvent: Winnipeg: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 33%💡 1 smartVerified directional wallets: positive measured PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:46 trades$29.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 61%
tape 145 min agoofficial metadata 118 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDuncan Chan (NO)$10.5K@ 42¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$190
6h
−$5.4K
tracked
$29.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$6 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 33% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 61% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 115 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 145 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-07-30 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$190
6h−$5.4K
24h−$5.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h58.4¢▲ above by 41.5pp
VWAP 7d58.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$50
90¢
$567
85¢
$37
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$776
65¢
$0
60¢
$100
55¢
$15.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$142
30¢
$2
25¢
$0
20¢
$10
15¢
$482
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDuncan Chan (NO)$10.5K@ 42.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
Verified directional wallets · 7d
swisstonyYES+$6 signed