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Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa

● quote 127 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $306.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $505.8KEvent: Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa
57.5¢
YES
42.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection72Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority87Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 3 smartVerified directional wallets: positive measured PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:86 trades$25.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 136 min agoofficial metadata 129 min ago
Verified directional wallets · 7d:NO $699·3 wallets·$699 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMayar Sherif (YES)$13.5K@ 42¢·0xbb5f…2e21

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$17.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$17.9K
6h
+$17.9K
tracked
$25.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$699 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 87

Since latest market sweep: -4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 127 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 136 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 129 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mayar Sherif and Paula Badosa in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mayar Sherif' if Mayar Sherif advances against Paula Badosa. This market will resolve to 'Paula Badosa' if Paula Badosa advances against Mayar Sherif. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL YES2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPSELL YES@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $10.7K → $831 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$17.9K
6h+$17.9K
24h+$17.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h42.1¢▲ above by 15.4pp
VWAP 7d42.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$21
80¢
$35
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.4K
65¢
$584
60¢
$568
55¢
← now
$538
50¢
$4.2K
45¢
$48
40¢
$24.0K
35¢
$933
30¢
$5
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMayar Sherif (YES)$13.5K@ 42.0¢0xbb5f…2e21🐋—about 2 hours ago
Verified directional wallets · 7d
ferrariChampions2026NO$3.1K signed
0x076d…8d4cNO$554 signed
neutralwave23NO$2 signed