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Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever

● quote 10 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $2.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $374.0KEvent: Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
62.8¢
YES
37.2¢
NO
1.6¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets42Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution64Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:199 trades$10.8K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.0K·5 wallets·$2.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIndiana Fever (NO)$2.0K@ 44¢·0xbca0…9705

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.5K
6h
−$1.9K
tracked
$10.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$1.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.6¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 66% · priority 52

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 10 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Resolution is disputed; price and historical flow may not map to the final settlement path.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
disputed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wnba.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 6 at 7:00PM ET: If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the Indiana Fever win, the market will resolve to "Indiana Fever". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $919 gross
0x5d63…90752 linked markets · $40 gross
0xe84f…b7772 linked markets · $26 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 6.6pp · near-book depth $737 → $980 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.5K
6h−$1.9K
24h−$1.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.8¢
VWAP 24h52.9¢▲ above by 9.9pp
VWAP 7d52.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$17
75¢
$103
70¢
$1.6K
65¢
$2.8K
60¢
← now
$288
55¢
$3.0K
50¢
$1.6K
45¢
$498
40¢
$11
35¢
$105
30¢
$154
25¢
$437
20¢
$24
15¢
$838
10¢
$4
5¢
$114
0¢
$371

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.