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LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

● quote 51s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $934.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $594.7KEvent: LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:140 trades$27.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 68%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$10.0K@ 78¢·retroactivesource

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$665
6h
−$7.2K
tracked
$27.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 68% of tracked volume.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-30 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Weibo Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for July 30 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Weibo Gaming. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff63 linked markets · $2.0K gross
0xd68e…80482 linked markets · $299 gross
0x84ad…bfb72 linked markets · $253 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.2pp · near-book depth $184 → $113 · 26s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$665
6h−$7.2K
24h−$7.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h34.5¢▲ above by 65.4pp
VWAP 7d34.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$649
90¢
$95
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$606
70¢
$0
65¢
$501
60¢
$630
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.8K
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
$13
25¢
$633
20¢
$10.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$10.0K@ 78.4¢
retroactivesource0x85d5…45ee
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

retroactivesourceWeibo Gaming$10.0K
BUY VWAP 78.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.