San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

● quote 49 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $600.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $402.8KEvent: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
40.5¢
YES
59.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%
24h sample:11 trades$29.1K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 73 min agoofficial metadata 49 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Francisco Giants (YES)$27.9K@ 41¢·0x1b20…3ab0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$726
6h
+$28.6K
tracked
$29.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 49 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 73 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 49 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres, scheduled for July 30 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY San Francisco Giants@ 41.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY San Francisco Giants@ 42.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$726
6h+$28.6K
24h+$28.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h41.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d41.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$29.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Francisco Giants (YES)$27.9K@ 41.0¢0x1b20…3ab0🐋about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
41.5¢$284.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$274.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.1¢$207.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season
100.0¢$198.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ShindeN (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs
0.1¢$193.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: VfB eSports vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group B
0.1¢$162.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
3.5¢$158.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1b20…3ab0San Francisco Giants$27.9K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.