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Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys

● quote 191 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $286.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys
28.5¢
YES
71.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets89Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:229 trades$130.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 201 min agoofficial metadata 195 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$658·3 wallets·$740 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexander Bublik (YES)$63.9K@ 68¢·0x7d6d…2654

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$556
6h
+$96.4K
tracked
$130.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$658 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 191 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 201 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 195 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Quentin Halys in the Generali Open, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Bublik@ 68.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $49.9K · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$556
6h+$96.4K
24h+$96.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.5¢
VWAP 24h65.3¢▼ below by 36.8pp
VWAP 7d65.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$100.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAlexander Bublik (YES)$36.1K@ 69.0¢0x7d6d…2654🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYAlexander Bublik (YES)$63.9K@ 67.7¢0x7d6d…2654🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7d6d…2654Alexander Bublik$100.0K
BUY VWAP 68.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.