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Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Mariam Bolkvadze

● quote 36 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $315.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $354.3KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Mariam Bolkvadze
99.9¢
YES
0.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:73 trades$34.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 35 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaria Kasatkina (YES)$20.0K@ 43¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.1K
6h
+$11.9K
tracked
$34.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$4 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +56.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 36 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 35 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Mariam Bolkvadze in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daria Kasatkina' if Daria Kasatkina advances against Mariam Bolkvadze. This market will resolve to 'Mariam Bolkvadze' if Mariam Bolkvadze advances against Daria Kasatkina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Daria Kasatkina2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Daria Kasatkina@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h CONFIRMED +54.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $15.3K → $5.7K · 49s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.1K
6h+$11.9K
24h+$11.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h53.7¢▲ above by 46.2pp
VWAP 7d53.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.4K
90¢
$224
85¢
$18
80¢
$0
75¢
$681
70¢
$98
65¢
$11
60¢
$10.1K
55¢
$183
50¢
$61
45¢
$4
40¢
$20.3K
35¢
$38
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDaria Kasatkina (YES)$20.0K@ 43.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMariam Bolkvadze (NO)$10.0K@ 39.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Daria Kasatkina$20.0K
BUY VWAP 43.4¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Mariam Bolkvadze$10.0K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.