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Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Alan Magadan vs Garrett Johns

● quote 129 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $218.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $102.2KEvent: Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Alan Magadan vs Garrett Johns
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
24h sample:7 trades$21.2K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 162 min agoofficial metadata 128 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlan Magadan (YES)$17.7K@ 83¢·0x8201…8a41

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.5K
6h
+$14.3K
tracked
$21.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 129 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 162 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 128 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alan Magadan and Garrett Johns in the Los Cabos Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alan Magadan' if Alan Magadan advances against Garrett Johns. This market will resolve to 'Garrett Johns' if Garrett Johns advances against Alan Magadan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alan Magadan@ 100.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3.5K
6h+$14.3K
24h+$14.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h85.3¢▲ above by 14.6pp
VWAP 7d85.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$5
80¢
$17.7K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAlan Magadan (YES)$17.7K@ 83.0¢0x8201…8a41🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8201…8a41Alan Magadan$17.7K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.