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Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Luis Carlos Alvarez vs Edward Winter

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $272.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $514.8KEvent: Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Luis Carlos Alvarez vs Edward Winter
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%
24h sample:85 trades$23.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 44s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYEdward Winter (NO)$18.1K@ 37¢·0xe907…cff6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.5K
6h
−$13.3K
tracked
$23.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luis Carlos Alvarez and Edward Winter in the Los Cabos Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luis Carlos Alvarez' if Luis Carlos Alvarez advances against Edward Winter. This market will resolve to 'Edward Winter' if Edward Winter advances against Luis Carlos Alvarez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $4.9K → $9.1K · 40s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.5K
6h−$13.3K
24h−$13.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h53.5¢▼ below by 53.5pp
VWAP 7d53.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$24
75¢
$830
70¢
$694
65¢
$7
60¢
$18.1K
55¢
$16
50¢
$25
45¢
$7
40¢
$10
35¢
$225
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$12
15¢
$193
10¢
$56
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$3.7K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYEdward Winter (NO)$18.1K@ 36.8¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe907…cff6Edward Winter$18.1K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.