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Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Roger Pascual vs Colton Smith

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UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $579.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $189.8KEvent: Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Roger Pascual vs Colton Smith
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$11.9K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 90%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRoger Pascual (YES)$2.4K@ 79¢·neutralwave23

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$876
6h
−$1.3K
tracked
$11.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$2.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Roger Pascual and Colton Smith in the Los Cabos Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Roger Pascual' if Roger Pascual advances against Colton Smith. This market will resolve to 'Colton Smith' if Colton Smith advances against Roger Pascual. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 10.0pp · near-book depth $18 → $26 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$876
6h−$1.3K
24h−$1.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h59.0¢▲ above by 40.9pp
VWAP 7d59.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$404
90¢
$0
85¢
$954
80¢
$663
75¢
$2.6K
70¢
$3
65¢
$7
60¢
$520
55¢
$2.2K
50¢
$122
45¢
$225
40¢
$753
35¢
$18
30¢
$7
25¢
$446
20¢
$243
15¢
$1.4K
10¢
$124
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity