Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies

● quote 1200 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $219.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $176.8KEvent: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:100 trades$42.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1220 min agoofficial metadata 1203 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$21.1K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$39.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKansas City Royals (YES)$30.3K@ 51¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.2K
6h
+$19.2K
tracked
$42.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: +$21.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1200 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1220 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1203 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 00:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies, scheduled for July 31 at 8:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. This market will resolve to "Colorado Rockies" if the Colorado Rockies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $50.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Kansas City Royals@ 51.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $84.8K$45.2K · 33s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.2K
6h+$19.2K
24h+$19.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h47.7¢▼ below by 46.7pp
VWAP 7d47.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$39.4K
45¢
$18
40¢
$222
35¢
$33
30¢
$49
25¢
$0
20¢
$102
15¢
$60
10¢
$281
5¢
$1.5K
0¢
← now
$1.1K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKansas City Royals (YES)$30.3K@ 51.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 24 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafKansas City Royals$30.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.