Samsun: Ergi Kirkin vs Paul Inchauspe

● quote 129 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $236.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $349.2KEvent: Samsun: Ergi Kirkin vs Paul Inchauspe
0.4¢
YES
99.6¢
NO
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection25Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%
24h sample:22 trades$42.4K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 139 min agoofficial metadata 131 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPaul Inchauspe (NO)$11.8K@ 98¢·0xb595…5922

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$10.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.4K
6h
−$33.8K
tracked
$42.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 129 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 139 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 131 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ergi Kirkin and Paul Inchauspe in the Samsun, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ergi Kirkin' if Ergi Kirkin advances against Paul Inchauspe. This market will resolve to 'Paul Inchauspe' if Paul Inchauspe advances against Ergi Kirkin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$10.4K
6h$33.8K
24h$33.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.4¢
VWAP 24h1.8¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d1.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$42.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPaul Inchauspe (NO)$11.8K@ 98.0¢0xb595…5922🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYPaul Inchauspe (NO)$11.7K@ 98.0¢0xb595…5922🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb595…5922Paul Inchauspe$23.4K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·2 fills
RoshanMVPPaul Inchauspe$14.7K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·15 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.