Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang

● quote 187 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $274.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $602.7KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang
79.5¢
YES
20.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly33Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:226 trades$100.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 195 min agoofficial metadata 191 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $463·2 wallets·$888 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKei Nishikori (YES)$35.0K@ 45¢·0x7d6d…2654

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$400
6h
+$80.8K
tracked
$100.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$463 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 187 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 195 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 191 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 36.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Kei Nishikori and Juncheng Shang in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kei Nishikori' if Kei Nishikori advances against Juncheng Shang. This market will resolve to 'Juncheng Shang' if Juncheng Shang advances against Kei Nishikori. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Kei Nishikori@ 44.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Kei Nishikori@ 44.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 29.0pp · near-book depth $3.6K$1.6K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$400
6h+$80.8K
24h+$80.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current79.5¢
VWAP 24h45.9¢▲ above by 33.6pp
VWAP 7d45.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$126
50¢
$2.4K
45¢
$87.0K
40¢
$5.2K
35¢
$4.1K
30¢
$5
25¢
$295
20¢
$79
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKei Nishikori (YES)$15.0K@ 48.8¢0x7d6d…2654🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYKei Nishikori (YES)$35.0K@ 45.4¢0x7d6d…2654🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYKei Nishikori (YES)$30.0K@ 45.8¢0x7d6d…2654🐋about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7d6d…2654Kei Nishikori$82.1K
BUY VWAP 46.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.