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Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

● quote 27835 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 13 daysLiquidity: $303.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $262.7KEvent: Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
99.9¢
YES
0.2¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCameron Norrie (YES)$25.8K@ 57¢·0x187a…a22b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$67
6h
+$25.2K
tracked
$42.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 58 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 27835 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 27868 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Aleksandar Kovacevic in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Aleksandar Kovacevic. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Kovacevic' if Aleksandar Kovacevic advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Cameron Norrie19d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Cameron Norrie@ 53.0¢19d ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +45.6pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$67
6h+$25.2K
24h+$40.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h57.0¢▲ above by 43.0pp
VWAP 7d57.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$76
90¢
$0
85¢
$10
80¢
$549
75¢
$15
70¢
$0
65¢
$395
60¢
$373
55¢
$41.3K
50¢
$8
45¢
$120
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCameron Norrie (YES)$25.8K@ 56.6¢0x187a…a22b🐋—19 days ago
BUYCameron Norrie (YES)$15.0K@ 56.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—20 days ago