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Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Varvara Lepchenko

● quote 57 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $129.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $384.9KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Varvara Lepchenko
59.5¢
YES
40.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection42Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%
24h sample:107 trades$30.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 66 min agoofficial metadata 59 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVarvara Lepchenko (NO)$12.7K@ 64¢·RN1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.4K
6h
−$10.6K
tracked
$30.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 53

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 57 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 66 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 59 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Polina Kudermetova and Varvara Lepchenko in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Polina Kudermetova' if Polina Kudermetova advances against Varvara Lepchenko. This market will resolve to 'Varvara Lepchenko' if Varvara Lepchenko advances against Polina Kudermetova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $51.1K → $12.2K · 18s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$12.4K
6h−$10.6K
24h−$10.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h43.0¢▲ above by 16.5pp
VWAP 7d43.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$4
80¢
$1.8K
75¢
$283
70¢
$368
65¢
$0
60¢
$7.6K
55¢
← now
$45
50¢
$15
45¢
$467
40¢
$3.6K
35¢
$13.9K
30¢
$4.3K
25¢
$25
20¢
$31
15¢
$190
10¢
$31
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYVarvara Lepchenko (NO)$12.7K@ 64.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Varvara Lepchenko$12.7K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.