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Palermo: Francesca Jones vs Fiona Ferro

● quote 1 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $320.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $442.4KEvent: Palermo: Francesca Jones vs Fiona Ferro
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 45%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:128 trades$8.1K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 88%
tape 33 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$97·2 wallets·$116 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.4K
6h
−$961
tracked
$8.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$97 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 45% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Observed tape is 33 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesca Jones and Fiona Ferro in the Palermo, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Jones' if Francesca Jones advances against Fiona Ferro. This market will resolve to 'Fiona Ferro' if Fiona Ferro advances against Francesca Jones. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 14.0pp · near-book depth $9 → $283 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2.4K
6h−$961
24h−$961

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h67.9¢▲ above by 32.0pp
VWAP 7d67.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$1
80¢
$16
75¢
$340
70¢
$89
65¢
$670
60¢
$8
55¢
$370
50¢
$2.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$454
30¢
$96
25¢
$581
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity