Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Alana Smith

● quote 106 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $451.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $338.9KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Alana Smith
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%
24h sample:63 trades$5.7K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 95%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 110 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaria Kasatkina (YES)$1.7K@ 98¢·0x7787…bf58

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$143
6h
+$1.1K
tracked
$5.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • Executable quote is 106 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 120 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Alana Smith in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daria Kasatkina' if Daria Kasatkina advances against Alana Smith. This market will resolve to 'Alana Smith' if Alana Smith advances against Daria Kasatkina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.0K$17.1K · 20s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$143
6h+$1.1K
24h+$1.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h85.5¢▲ above by 14.4pp
VWAP 7d85.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.7K
90¢
$940
85¢
$4
80¢
$0
75¢
$65
70¢
$272
65¢
$339
60¢
$895
55¢
$32
50¢
$105
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$50
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity