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Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-08?

● quote 39s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $252.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $175.9KEvent: Real Salt Lake vs. Atlante FC
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:39 trades$40.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.5K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$11.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$19.4K@ 37¢·Painfulvoid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.9K
6h
−$112
tracked
$40.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$11.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -37.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.leaguescup.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 8, 2026 If Real Salt Lake wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $8.8K gross
0xa797…dede2 linked markets · $6.4K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $283 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 38.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $26 → $114 · 37s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.9K
6h−$112
24h−$112

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h68.5¢▲ above by 31.5pp
VWAP 7d68.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$96
75¢
$453
70¢
$2.3K
65¢
$0
60¢
$31.4K
55¢
$1
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$19.4K@ 37.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$11.7K@ 62.4¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PainfulvoidNo$19.4K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
WTSAYes$11.7K
BUY VWAP 62.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.