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Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)

● quote 100 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 39 minutesLiquidity: $42.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $59.9KEvent: Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution20Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$19.6K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 148 min agoofficial metadata 110 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMIBR (YES)$19.6K@ 53¢·esportGG

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$7
6h
+$19.6K
tracked
$19.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$19.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 100 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 148 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 06:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant match between Evil Geniuses and MIBR in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 31 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR wins 2 or more maps than Evil Geniuses in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Evil Geniuses". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x86df…d9022 linked markets · $2.2K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $163 gross
0xfdc0…4b852 linked markets · $161 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MIBR@ 100.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$7
6h+$19.6K
24h+$19.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h53.4¢▲ above by 46.5pp
VWAP 7d53.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$19.6K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMIBR (YES)$19.6K@ 53.4¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

esportGGMIBR$19.6K
BUY VWAP 53.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.