Targu Mures: Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Dalila Spiteri

● quote 98 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $244.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $489.5KEvent: Targu Mures: Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Dalila Spiteri
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection96Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%
24h sample:61 trades$11.8K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 108 min agoofficial metadata 100 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYelyzaveta Kotliar (YES)$9.4K@ 77¢·RN1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$11.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$11.0K
6h
+$11.1K
tracked
$11.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 98 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 108 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 100 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-04 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yelyzaveta Kotliar and Dalila Spiteri in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for July 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yelyzaveta Kotliar' if Yelyzaveta Kotliar advances against Dalila Spiteri. This market will resolve to 'Dalila Spiteri' if Dalila Spiteri advances against Yelyzaveta Kotliar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $35.6K$2.0K · 26s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$11.0K
6h+$11.1K
24h+$11.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h76.5¢▲ above by 23.5pp
VWAP 7d76.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$175
90¢
$7
85¢
$15
80¢
$0
75¢
$9.4K
70¢
$1.6K
65¢
$210
60¢
$10
55¢
$110
50¢
$5
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Yelyzaveta Kotliar$10.5K
BUY VWAP 76.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.