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Bonn: Olle Wallin vs Lorenzo Giustino

● quote 32 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $291.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $667.2KEvent: Bonn: Olle Wallin vs Lorenzo Giustino
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly65Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 23%
24h sample:96 trades$48.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 42%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 32 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLorenzo Giustino (NO)$15.0K@ 76¢·0x7d6d…2654

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$927
6h
−$14.1K
tracked
$48.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 23% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 42% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 32 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-04 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Olle Wallin and Lorenzo Giustino in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 28, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Olle Wallin' if Olle Wallin advances against Lorenzo Giustino. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Giustino' if Lorenzo Giustino advances against Olle Wallin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $28.8K → $23.7K · 48s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$927
6h−$14.1K
24h−$14.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h34.8¢▲ above by 65.1pp
VWAP 7d34.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$75
70¢
$2.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3
50¢
$14
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$6
25¢
$681
20¢
$15.9K
15¢
$30
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLorenzo Giustino (NO)$15.0K@ 76.2¢0x7d6d…2654🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7d6d…2654Lorenzo Giustino$15.0K
BUY VWAP 76.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.