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Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-04?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $8.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $168.2KEvent: Jeju SK FC vs. Bayern Munich
90.0¢
YES
10.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:116 trades$12.8K trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$8.8K·3 wallets·$9.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$4.2K@ 83¢·quavoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.3K
6h
+$6.3K
tracked
$12.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$8.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 67% · priority 64

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-04 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.flashscore.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 4, 2026 If Bayern Munich wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $150 → $28 · 76s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2.3K
6h+$6.3K
24h+$6.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current90.0¢
VWAP 24h83.1¢▲ above by 6.9pp
VWAP 7d83.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$24
85¢
$3.3K
80¢
$7.1K
75¢
$2.4K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity