Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-08-05?

● quote 185 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $24.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.8KEvent: RCD Mallorca vs. Paris Saint-Germain
84.5¢
YES
15.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:30 trades$17.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 189 min agoofficial metadata 185 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$559·3 wallets·$593 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$16.2K@ 67¢·0xbba2…24fe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$163
6h
−$16.1K
tracked
$17.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$559 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 185 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 189 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 185 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.flashscore.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 5, 2026 If RCD Mallorca wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $233 gross
0x2d67…36672 linked markets · $11 gross
0x5d63…90752 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $9.3K$9.9K · 45s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$163
6h$16.1K
24h$16.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current84.5¢
VWAP 24h33.5¢▲ above by 51.0pp
VWAP 7d33.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$4
80¢
← now
$52
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$15
55¢
$48
50¢
$473
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$16.8K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$16.2K@ 67.3¢0xbba2…24fe🐋about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BUY VWAP 67.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.