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Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-12?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $112.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $249.9KEvent: Orlando City SC vs. Atlético San Luis
69.5¢
YES
30.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$86.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$3.4K·4 wallets·$11.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.6K@ 55¢·0x4956…e2c7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$898
6h
−$5.1K
tracked
$86.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$3.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 12.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.leaguescup.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If Orlando City SC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY YES@ 58.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $22 → $432 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$898
6h−$5.1K
24h−$2.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current69.5¢
VWAP 24h56.4¢▲ above by 13.1pp
VWAP 7d56.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$3.2K
60¢
$8.8K
55¢
$38.3K
50¢
$32.5K
45¢
$3.4K
40¢
$11
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$10.6K@ 54.9¢0x4956…e2c7🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4956…e2c7No$21.7K
BUY VWAP 42.8¢·7 fills
0x4956…e2c7Yes$15.3K
BUY VWAP 55.5¢·2 fills
0x2a69…d2f7Yes$11.7K
BUY VWAP 55.5¢·6 fills
0x2a69…d2f7No$10.3K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.