Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 17 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $813.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $721.5KEvent: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:121 trades$79.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 19 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $15.8K·8 wallets(1🐋)·$16.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$31.9K@ 61¢·Pwaddler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.2K
6h
+$12.2K
tracked
$79.3K

8 verified profitable wallets: −$15.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +60.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 17 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 60.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 1 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago White Sox@ 40.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 61.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 10.0pp · near-book depth $2$5 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.2K
6h+$12.2K
24h$19.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h39.3¢▼ below by 38.3pp
VWAP 7d39.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$20.2K
40¢
$1.7K
35¢
$52.0K
30¢
$20
25¢
$1.0K
20¢
$57
15¢
$347
10¢
$3.1K
5¢
$294
0¢
← now
$477

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$15.3K@ 53.6¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (YES)$17.3K@ 39.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$31.9K@ 61.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PwaddlerTampa Bay Rays$31.9K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
0x5e94…5ba1Chicago White Sox$17.3K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill
DjdjdjekekekTampa Bay Rays$15.3K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.