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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote 9 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $123.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $760.9KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
86.5¢
YES
13.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$55.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$40.7K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$40.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates (YES)$40.8K@ 53¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$10.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.8K
6h
+$50.4K
tracked
$55.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$40.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 9 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 36.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 1 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $21.2K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $17.6K gross
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $6.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Pittsburgh Pirates2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $103 → $15.3K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$10.8K
6h+$50.4K
24h+$50.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current86.5¢
VWAP 24h59.6¢▲ above by 26.9pp
VWAP 7d59.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$11.3K
80¢
$183
75¢
$62
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3
55¢
$59
50¢
$43.6K
45¢
$273
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPittsburgh Pirates (YES)$10.6K@ 85.0¢0x5268…135d🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates (YES)$40.8K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafPittsburgh Pirates$40.8K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dPittsburgh Pirates$10.6K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.