Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros

● quote 144 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $720.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $164.6KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
43.5¢
YES
56.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection98Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$7.7K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 162 min agoofficial metadata 146 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHouston Astros (NO)$7.0K@ 56¢·0xd48a…6e90

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.5K
6h
−$7.7K
tracked
$7.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$112 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 144 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 162 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 146 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 00:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros, scheduled for August 3 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$7.5K
6h$7.7K
24h$7.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h44.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d44.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$269
40¢
← now
$7.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
47.5¢$44.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
100.0¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs
100.0¢$852.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees
30.5¢$399.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
53.5¢$242.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers
46.5¢$167.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$163.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.