Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies

● quote 24 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $362.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $185.9KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:50 trades$29.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $92·3 wallets·$166 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$28.0K@ 63¢·0x8239…d9a3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$842
6h
+$27.4K
tracked
$29.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$92 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 24 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 35 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 24.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 00:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies, scheduled for August 3 at 8:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Colorado Rockies" if the Colorado Rockies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tampa Bay Rays3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 76.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +21.2pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $5.7K$88 · 15s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$842
6h+$27.4K
24h+$27.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.0¢▲ above by 34.9pp
VWAP 7d65.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.5K
90¢
$59
85¢
$0
80¢
$101
75¢
$202
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$28.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$28.0K@ 63.0¢0x8239…d9a3🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8239…d9a3Tampa Bay Rays$28.0K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.