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Targu Mures: Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Mia Ristic

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $124.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $158.2KEvent: Targu Mures: Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Mia Ristic
47.8¢
YES
52.3¢
NO
1.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution38Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:164 trades$19.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 95%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $15.1K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$15.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMia Ristic (NO)$10.5K@ 52¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.6K
6h
−$15.7K
tracked
$19.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: −$15.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.5¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 61

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yelyzaveta Kotliar and Mia Ristic in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yelyzaveta Kotliar' if Yelyzaveta Kotliar advances against Mia Ristic. This market will resolve to 'Mia Ristic' if Mia Ristic advances against Yelyzaveta Kotliar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $2 → $178 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3.6K
6h−$15.7K
24h−$15.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.8¢
VWAP 24h36.2¢▲ above by 11.5pp
VWAP 7d36.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$189
55¢
$323
50¢
$1.0K
45¢
← now
$11.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$7
30¢
$12
25¢
$336
20¢
$289
15¢
$335
10¢
$30
5¢
$909
0¢
$3.4K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMia Ristic (NO)$10.5K@ 52.4¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Mia Ristic$11.1K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.