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Samsun: Semen Pankin vs Manoj Dhamne Manas

● quote 34 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $307.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $279.8KEvent: Samsun: Semen Pankin vs Manoj Dhamne Manas
6.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:176 trades$63.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 96%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 33 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $20.6K·4 wallets(2🐋)·$52.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYManoj Dhamne Manas (NO)$23.3K@ 45¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$478
6h
−$14.2K
tracked
$63.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$20.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 34 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 33 minutes old.
  • •The market is not currently accepting orders.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-05 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Semen Pankin and Manoj Dhamne Manas in the Samsun, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Semen Pankin' if Semen Pankin advances against Manoj Dhamne Manas. This market will resolve to 'Manoj Dhamne Manas' if Manoj Dhamne Manas advances against Semen Pankin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 34m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 34m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Manoj Dhamne Manas@ 89.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -20.0pp1h INVALIDATED -47.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $6 → $23.4K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$478
6h−$14.2K
24h−$14.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.0¢
VWAP 24h49.6¢▼ below by 43.6pp
VWAP 7d49.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$14
75¢
$1.5K
70¢
$160
65¢
$27
60¢
$0
55¢
$124
50¢
$43.7K
45¢
$547
40¢
$8
35¢
$12.9K
30¢
$425
25¢
$121
20¢
$11
15¢
$0
10¢
$169
5¢
← now
$328
0¢
$666

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYManoj Dhamne Manas (NO)$12.4K@ 63.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYManoj Dhamne Manas (NO)$23.3K@ 45.3¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSemen Pankin (YES)$11.3K@ 53.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Manoj Dhamne Manas$23.3K
BUY VWAP 45.3¢·1 fill
RN1Manoj Dhamne Manas$12.4K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
RN1Semen Pankin$11.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.