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Bonn: Samuele Pieri vs Federico Agustin Gomez

● quote 87 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $260.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $186.8KEvent: Bonn: Samuele Pieri vs Federico Agustin Gomez
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly31Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:41 trades$24.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 124 min agoofficial metadata 89 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFederico Agustin Gomez (NO)$23.4K@ 78¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$215
6h
−$23.8K
tracked
$24.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$23.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 87 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 124 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 89 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Samuele Pieri and Federico Agustin Gomez in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Samuele Pieri' if Samuele Pieri advances against Federico Agustin Gomez. This market will resolve to 'Federico Agustin Gomez' if Federico Agustin Gomez advances against Samuele Pieri. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Federico Agustin Gomez2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Federico Agustin Gomez@ 90.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.1pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $49.3K → $11.3K · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$215
6h−$23.8K
24h−$23.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h21.7¢▼ below by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d21.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$23.4K
15¢
$9
10¢
$288
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$261

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFederico Agustin Gomez (NO)$23.4K@ 78.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Federico Agustin Gomez$23.4K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.