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San Marino: Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas

● quote 182 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $327.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $281.3KEvent: San Marino: Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas
9.5¢
YES
90.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection72Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%
24h sample:13 trades$124.9K tracked46% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 187 min agoofficial metadata 185 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Pablo Varillas (NO)$44.9K@ 92¢·0x5455…8b2a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$90.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$90.2K
6h
−$55.5K
tracked
$124.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 64

Since latest accumulation: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 182 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 187 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 185 minutes old.
  • •Resolution wording is unavailable; the settlement condition cannot be verified here.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-08-06 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Juan Pablo Varillas@ 86.0¢3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Juan Pablo Varillas@ 86.0¢3h ago
Outcome checks pending
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$90.2K
6h−$55.5K
24h−$55.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current9.5¢
VWAP 24h27.2¢▼ below by 17.7pp
VWAP 7d27.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$14.7K
60¢
$20.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$13.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$14.3K
5¢
← now
$62.9K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJuan Pablo Varillas (NO)$18.0K@ 92.0¢0x5455…8b2a🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJuan Pablo Varillas (NO)$44.9K@ 91.9¢0x5455…8b2a🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJuan Pablo Varillas (NO)$14.3K@ 86.0¢0x5455…8b2a🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLFrancesco Maestrelli (YES)$13.0K@ 39.7¢
Winnerdinnerchickenjr0x408f…b2f4
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli (YES)$14.7K@ 65.1¢0xbf00…1199🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli (YES)$20.0K@ 61.0¢
Winnerdinnerchickenjr0x408f…b2f4
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5455…8b2aJuan Pablo Varillas$77.1K
BUY VWAP 90.8¢·3 fills
WinnerdinnerchickenjrFrancesco Maestrelli$20.0K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
0xbf00…1199Francesco Maestrelli$14.7K
BUY VWAP 65.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.